A recent proposal by the Social Market Foundation (SMF) to double Machine Games Duty from 20% to 40% has alarmed Britain’s betting shop sector as it threatens to pile more tariff pressure on an already heavily taxed sector. News of Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham’s intent to challenge for the Premiership has also added more fuel to the fire. 

On this episode of iGaming Daily, Charlie Horner is joined by SBC News’ Editor-at-Large Ted Menmuir and iGaming Expert Editor Joe Streeter to unpack whether the SMF’s proposals stand a real chance of gaining traction with an incoming Labour cabinet focused on reviving Britain’s high streets.

A think tank with form

Streeter opened by framing the SMF’s intervention as deeply familiar territory. “There’s deja vu on two counts really,” he said, pointing to both the return of a gambling tax battle so soon after last year’s budget, and the industry once again being forced onto the front foot to defend itself.

He noted that while last year’s budget “was obviously cited as a loss” for the sector, the retail arm of the industry had been well shielded by policymakers seeking to reduce the budget’s impact on the high street.

That protection now looks under threat as, according to Streeter, betting shops generate around 50% of their revenue from category B machines, which the SMF is now proposing an exclusive tax increase on. 

Streeter drew a direct line to the 2019 Fixed Odds Betting Terminal’s (FOBT) stake cuts as a precedent for how damaging structural shocks can be to retail betting, describing the sector’s ongoing recalibration in the years since. 

Menmuir was blunter about the motivation behind the timing. “You can call me cynical,” he said, before accusing the SMF of trying to gain early influence “just before the new prime minister takes office.”

The SMF’s Reasoning

Horner kept things fair, highlighting the SMF’s own justification for its proposal. For them, gaming machines remain highly profitable and should therefore contribute more to public services while reducing gambling-related harm. 

Horner then went on to note  that the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) has rejected this reasoning as “too simplistic,” arguing it fails to account for shrinking margins in retail betting already squeezed by FOBT-related changes and rising business rates.

The Burnham factor

The second half of the discussion turned to what an incoming Burnham Premiership might mean for gambling policy. 

Menmuir noted that Burnham’s own rhetoric has shifted from his time as Greater Manchester Mayor, when he backed council calls for tighter local controls over betting venues, toward a broader vision centred on devolution, reviving local high streets, and easing inflationary pressure through improved public services and social mobility.

Streeter then picked up on a specific line from Burnham’s Manchester speech distinguishing “all businesses” from each other, singling out cafes, hairdressers and pubs as one category, with gambling implicitly positioned elsewhere. 

Streeter highlighted the notable omission of pubs from the SMF’s proposal, since pubs typically house category C and D machines, not the category B machines under discussion, and cited the BGC’s sharp response accusing the SMF of trying “to separate category B and C machines in order to avoid opposition from pubs and hospitality,” calling the approach “economically incoherent.”

Both hosts agreed Burnham is likely to be a genuinely gambling-sceptic prime minister rather than simply a politically convenient one, given his history of backing council-level restrictions. 

However, Menmuir argued the SMF’s deeper ambition, reopening the full gambling review, is likely a step too far even for a sceptical Burnham government, given the scale of competing priorities he will face early in his Premiership, including an estimated £4.7bn funding gap for defence.

A sector in limbo

Concluding the discussion, Menmuir pointed to reports that Ed Miliband could become the next Chancellor, someone seen as effective but potentially inclined toward further tax rises. 

He suggested the SMF’s real strategic aim may be less about the £450m in projected revenue and more about pushing the stalled Gambling Act review and its white paper recommendations back onto the political agenda after years of delay.

As Horner summarised, the discussion offered little optimism for a sector still waiting on regulatory clarity: “we really are in the unknown for UK gambling as it stands.”

Watch the full episode here.