Reports of a possible Machine Games Duty (MGD) increase have left UK gambling braced for another budget blow. 

Ahead of the Autumn Budget on 28 October, 2026, host Fernando Noodt is joined on iGaming Daily by SBC News Editor Ted Orme-Claye and iGaming Expert Editor Joe Streeter to unpack the latest rumours, the leaked Social Market Foundation (SMF) documents and what is really at stake.

A smaller rise, but a rise nonetheless

The Times has reported that Chancellor John Healey could raise MGD by five percentage points, taking the standard rate from 20% to 25%. 

The report cited unnamed sources and nothing has been confirmed. Orme-Claye said the figure looks like a better outcome than the SMF’s call to double the duty. The Betting and Gaming Council (BGC) had warned that raising the duty to 40% could put up to 3,800 casino jobs at risk.

Both guests stopped short of calling it a win. 

Orme-Claye said: “Five percentage points is still five percentage points more than the industry would want.” He pointed to a sector already absorbing higher Remote Gaming Duty and preparing for a General Betting Duty rise. 

Streeter agreed, noting that Flutter’s confirmed job cuts relate to Remote Gaming Duty, and that any further rise would only add pressure on a struggling retail sector.

The SMF’s evidence under fire

Streeter also pointed to a Guido Fawkes report based on internal SMF documents, which shows senior figures at the think tank pushing back on jobs concerns. 

He said the documents describe the black market as a “boogeyman”, which, in his view, suggests the industry’s warnings are not cutting through to policymakers. Orme-Claye added that the BGC and others now seem to be leaning on arguments about community and jobs instead. 

The challenge there, he said, is that it is far easier to make the case for a betting shop than for a slot machine.

Racing in the firing line

Orme-Claye stressed that any hit to betting shops would be felt well beyond the high street. 

Horse racing relies on the betting levy, media rights payments from shop screens and bookmaker sponsorship, and he suggested media rights is the least discussed of the three.

Streeter pointed to Betfred founder Fred Done’s warning that retail betting risks going extinct.

Uncertainty as the real cost

For Streeter, the problem goes beyond any single rate. He said: “It adds to a whole cauldron of uncertainty and just instability within the market.” He drew a parallel with Brazil. Orme-Claye expects more consolidation, with smaller operators shrinking or closing and UK gambling becoming “an industry for the big players.”