Prediction market specialist Kalshi has been backed to face the US Supreme Court in the next two years.

Kalshi has enjoyed success with its event contracts business model, in part because of a strong interest in political predictions during Donald Trump’s successful presidential election campaign. 

Becoming the first federally regulated platform where Americans can legally trade on election outcomes gave Kalshi the ability to push into sports and entertainment markets. 

Yet this led to court battles in seven states, demonstrating that the events prediction market has to contend with growing legal, technical and cultural issues.

In episode 577 of the iGaming Daily Podcast, SBC Media Managing Editor Jessica Welman was joined by International Masters of Gaming Law (IMGL) President and Jones Walker partner Marc Dunbar, to tackle the legal mess that is Kalshi sports contracts.

Prediction markets are regulated but face far less strict rulings which opens the market up to legal ramifications. 

Dunbar said that it is ‘very possible’ that the market is ‘two years away’ from heading to the Supreme Court. 

He suggested that the government would find it difficult to shut Kalshi down, given the money it is generating from its popularity. “Time in the market. They’re making money, right? 

“So the longer you’re in the market, the better you are … it’s very unlikely that you’re ever going to have the government shut it down. And so Kalshi’s in the marketplace … the longer they’re in the marketplace … the better for them, frankly.”

However, he did tease that the industry may have to be prepared for the Federal Government to come for them and that it is unlikely to become a deregulated federal gambling market. 

“I could see a curve — the next curveball coming — comes from the administration, does not come from a court. 

“It would essentially create a deregulated federal gambling market, which I don’t think anybody’s going to subscribe to … this is a little different than a fifth wheel that’s rolling down the highway.”