Brazil has been framed by global gambling executives as the industry’s ultimate growth prize, a vast, sports-mad population poised to deliver an immediate surge in revenue once regulation went live.

However, more than a year after the market’s official launch, the first wave of data suggests a far more measured reality.

Rather than an overnight explosion, Brazil’s regulated iGaming sector is emerging as a market defined by transition, enforcement challenges and political sensitivity. That was the central conclusion of a recent iGaming Daily podcast, where the SBC team unpacked new figures released by Brazil’s Secretary of Prizes and Bets.

Host Charlie Horner was joined by SBC Editor-at-Large, Ted Menmuir, and SBC Media Researcher, Ana Maria Menezes, to examine the reported $7.44bn in Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) and assess how far the market has fallen short of the most ambitious forecasts.

Menmuir was blunt in his assessment of early expectations. “This is really a reality check for anyone who thought there’d be an instant bets boom when the market went live in January,” he said. “Brazil doesn’t enter the global top 10 straight away. Instead, 2025 has very much been a year of regulatory transition.”

That transition has not prevented the market from delivering meaningful fiscal returns. Menezes noted that the Federal Revenue Service has already collected close to $2bn through a combination of federal taxes and statutory allocations.

With the headline tax rate set to rise from 12% to 15% in the coming years, government income is expected to increase further. Early demographic data also paints a clear picture of the core regulated audience: predominantly male (around 70%), with bettors aged 31–40 forming the largest segment.

Yet the shadow of the black market looms large. The panel agreed that illegal operators remain the single biggest structural threat, particularly as they continue to offer welcome bonuses prohibited under the regulated framework. Menezes argued that 2026 must become a year of financial enforcement, with the Central Bank playing a more aggressive role in sanctioning payment providers that facilitate illegal activity.

Political risk is another growing concern. With general elections scheduled for 2026, gambling is increasingly being weaponised in public debate. Menmuir observed that President Lula appears to be distancing himself from the framework he approved, while Menezes warned that betting-related narratives are already being reshaped to appeal to religious and socially conservative voters.

Amid these pressures, there is one clear regulatory positive. Brazil’s centralised self-exclusion programme, launched in December, has already recorded more than 200,000 voluntary requests. According to Menezes, the majority cite mental health and loss-of-control concerns, a sign that consumer protection tools are being understood and actively used.

For operators and suppliers, Brazil’s message is clear: this is not a gold rush, but a long-term regulatory build.