Brazil’s main stock exchange, B3 Exchange, is assessing a potential Q1 launch of prediction market products, a move that would test the scope of Brazil’s newly implemented betting regulations just 12 months after fixed-odds wagering went live.
According to comments from B3 CEO, João Pedro Nascimento, the exchange is exploring binary-style contracts tied to outcomes on the BOVESPA index, the US dollar and Bitcoin.
The proposed products would allow users to take defined positions on market outcomes, positioning prediction markets closer to financial instruments than traditional gambling products.
The proposal was the focus of the latest episode of the iGaming Daily, which this week launched a new ‘Road to Rio’ series spotlighting topics set to dominate discussion at SBC Summit Rio.
In the opening episode, SBC‘s Media Manager, Fernando Noodt, was joined by SBC Researcher, Ana Maria Menezes, and Hugo Baungartner, Chief Business Officer at Grupo Esportes Gaming Brasil, to examine whether Brazil is ready for prediction markets, and which authorities should regulate them.
Baungartner expressed doubts about near-term viability, arguing that Brazil’s betting market is still stabilising following the introduction of fixed-odds regulation. He noted that while prediction markets are gaining traction internationally, Brazil lacks a clear legal basis to support them today.
A key issue discussed was regulatory jurisdiction. While betting activity falls under the Secretariat of Prizes and Betting, Secretariat of Prizes and Betting, the three agreed that prediction markets would more likely sit with the Comissão de Valores Mobiliários, given their resemblance to financial derivatives.
Menezes added that recent court rulings may also limit regulators’ ability to extend their authority beyond what is explicitly defined in law.
Operational barriers were also highlighted. The trio stressed the importance of Pix, banking cooperation and Central Bank alignment in either enabling or blocking new verticals. Without this infrastructure, any compliant prediction market would struggle to operate.
With international operators monitoring Brazil closely, the consensus was that the sector remains in a “wait and see” phase until legal ownership and payment pathways are clarified.
