The long wait is over and we are just hours away from the start of the new NFL season.
The regular season gets underway with an AFC Championship rematch as the Baltimore Ravens take on the Kansas City Chiefs, before a game in Brazil between the Green Bay Packers and the Philadelphia Eagles on Friday night.
This will be followed by a full slate of games on Sunday and finished off with the first Monday Night Football game of the season with the New York Jets at the San Francisco 49ers.
Ahead of the new season, Jason Logan was joined by host of the Bet the Board podcast, Todd Fuhrman, on Covers’ Sharp 600 podcast to break down the best bets for the first week of professional football action.
Bet the Over
Logan revealed that the majority of games hit the under for total points scored during the opening round of games. Since 2020, 61% of games hit the under, rising to 72% in the last two years.
The pair explained that operators have become more aware of this trend and started to lower their total points lines which has opened up opportunities for punters to take the over.
The duo offered up three options to target, including the Sunday Night clash between the Washington Commanders and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
Fuhrman said: “I think the total between the Commanders and the Bucs is a shade too low here so I’m going over 43.5.”
“This is a Washington defence that is going to take time to adopt Dan Quinn’s scheme and I think they have more playmakers than they are given credit for. Dave Canales being gone from Tampa’s offence leads me to believe that they may throw [the ball] around more with some of those weapons.”
Over 43.5 is currently at -115 with the show’s partner FanDuel Sportsbook.
The other picks for the total points scored market was the Philadelphia Eagles scoring over 25.5 points against the Green Bay Packers in their game in Brazil (-110) and also the over for the total points scored in the LA Rams vs Detroit Lions game.
Lines currently can be found between 50 and 51.5 for the game and the pair scored 38 points in a breathless opening half of their Wildcard game during the 2023 NFL playoffs, before the points dried up in the second half.
Anytime touchdown scorer
The abovementioned Commanders vs Bucs game is also the source of the best bet for an anytime touchdown scorer.
“Dual-threat quarterback” Jayden Daniels is Logan’s pick to reach the endzone during the game, facing a Buccaneers defence that gave up six touchdowns to quarterbacks during the 2023 season. Daniels also crossed for a touchdown off a zone read during the NFL pre-season which could be indicative of Cliff Kingsbury’s plans for his Commanders offence.
He is currently +195 with Fanduel to score a touchdown on Sunday night.
Tennessee Titans with the spread
The final pick for the weekend is to bet on the Tennessee Titans with a +4.5 start on the road against the Chicago Bears.
The game will mark the debut of the 2024 NFL draft’s first overall pick Caleb Williams, and Logan believes that the Titans’ defence will target the young quarterback.
He said: “We talked about the Bears and the buzz getting a little too loud and puffing up this spread. [Tennessee are] going to come after that rookie QB in Chicago. He’s going to throw some error passes, throw some rushed passes and I think it’s going to pay off here for the Titans.”
“I like all the skill positions they have put around Will Levis in Tennessee. The defence here with Dennard Wilson dialling up the intensity, they’ve got a lot of veterans with plenty of tread left on the tyre.”
The 4.5 spread marks just the fourth time that Tennessee has been laid with more than a field goal (three points) in the opening game of the season and it also represents the largest margin that a rookie QB has been laid with. The Titans are -122 with Fanduel to win with the spread.
