Market analysts and professional bettors are sharpening criticism of what they view as increasingly conservative campaign decisions at the top of National Hunt racing, particularly as injuries have reshaped the Cheltenham Festival landscape.
With the Champion Hurdle division weakened by the absence of Constitution Hill and the injury setback to Sir Gino, attention has shifted to whether connections of elite mares are prepared to target open championship races rather than protected divisional contests. Critics argue that opting for safer options undermines the sporting and betting value of the Festival’s flagship events.
This debate was central to Episode 11 of the Racing Post’s Upping The Ante series, supported by bet365, hosted by David Jennings with professional punter Johnny Dineen. The pair assessed current ante-post markets while questioning the strategic logic behind avoiding the Champion Hurdle in what is now considered a wide-open renewal.
Dineen was direct in his assessment of Lossiemouth, arguing there is no sporting justification for confining the mare to the Mares’ Hurdle. From a market perspective, he suggested that a horse trading near the head of the Champion Hurdle betting should be running in the race, regardless of perceived risk. He framed last season’s decision to bypass the contest as symptomatic of a wider shift toward risk minimisation at the expense of competitive intent.
Beyond the championship discussion, the episode delivered several clear betting positions ahead of the Dublin Racing Festival. In the Juvenile Hurdle, Dineen expressed strong confidence in Narcissiso Has, recommending early market exposure to lock in value and predicting a form reversal with Majborough.
In contrast, he took a negative view of Galopin Des Champs in the Irish Gold Cup, describing the favourite as vulnerable due to field size, race dynamics and the potential for traffic problems.
Jennings identified King Rasko Grey as his banker for the meeting and a potential value play for the Turners Novice Chase, though Dineen questioned whether the horse has yet proven it can cope with a step up in class.
The discussion also addressed recent operational issues at Cheltenham Racecourse, including a hole in the track and lighting problems affecting the photo-finish system. Dineen defended officials’ decision-making, arguing that isolating the hazard and relying on broadcast footage was the correct call under the circumstances.
