With golfs most anticipated event set to begin next week, the Sweet Spot podcast, hosted by Dave Clark and featuring analyst Steve Palmer, gives us a comprehensive, betting focused preview of the Masters tournament alongside their picks to win it.
Palmer opens the episode with a clear picture of what fans can expect from Augusta this year.
The 72 par course comes in at 7565 total yards – a 10 yard increase on the previous year thanks to a slight extension to the 17th hole – with four par fives and is considered one of the most challenging courses in the United States.
Critically, the forecast is dry, with a warm calmness, characteristic of Georgia spring. Palmer expects this to produce firm, fast greens.
As the pair transition towards their tournament favourites, Palmer notes how previous success in the run up to the competition, is one of the biggest signs of a potential winner, “The last 16 Masters winners were inside the top 30 of the world ranking at the time of their victory”.
“The cream typically rises to the top in the Masters…” he adds.
Palmer goes on to highlight five key statistical themes that betters should consider prior to making any bets.
- 1. All five of the last Masters winners ranked first (or second) in strokes gained tee-to-green, and all finished in the top six for strokes gained on approach.
2. Driving distance is a significant advantage with only two of the last 26 Masters having been won by a player with a short driver.
3. Putting, by contrast, is less of a decisive factor (especially when compared to other majors).
4. Augusta’s layout favours golfers who can hit a right-handed draw off the tee, then fade approaches into greens.
5. And it’s bad news for debutants, who sport a poor record at the famous course. In fact, the last Masters debut winner was Fuzzy Zoeller in 1979.
Palmer rounds off this analysis with his winning score projection: approximately 10 under par, consistent with the last five Masters winners.
Clark then pushes Palmer to go into detail about the key players.
Xander Schauffele
Palmer’s headline pick to win the open is Xander Schauffele.
He holds two major titles (2024 US PGA and 2024 Open Championship) and boasts a strong Augusta record (five top-10 finishes in his last seven Masters starts, including second in 2019 and third in 2017).
Despite a slow start to 2026, which Palmer attributes to minimal off-season practice following the birth of his first child, he is expected to trend upwards and have a good tournament.
Palmer also notes his age.
At 32, Schauffele aligns with the historical average age of all Masters champions.
Cameron Young
Fun fact: the last two Masters have been won by the player who won at Sawgrass the month prior.
Scheffler in ‘24. McIlroy ‘25.
This year, that was Cameron Young, taking home the Player Championship in dramatic fashion.
Palmer points out how his power off of the tee box gives him a great advantage at Augusta.
This, coupled with Youngs development in the sport which saw him finish third at the 2022 US PGA, runner-up at the 2022 Open, fourth at last year’s US Open as well as earning a spot on the Ryder Cup team, makes him a serious contender.
Brooks Koepka
Palmer backs Koepka as a “bit disrespected in the market”.
The two-time Masters runner-up and five-major champion plays with what Palmer describes as “elite level” approach play.
Where Koepka falls short is in his – sometimes – spotty driving. But to Palmer, this can be overlooked.
Augusta is known for her generous fairways, with some landing zones being between 50 and 60 yards wide.
For a player who can sometimes struggle to drive accurately, room for error like that could open the door for a strong showing for the American golfer.
Nicolai Højgaard
Representing the European contingent, Palmer selects Højgaard as his favourite.
The runner-up in Houston last time out, he ranked first for strokes gained on approach and currently sits 13th overall in the PGA Tour season-long strokes gained approach leaderboard.
A three-time DP World Tour champion, now with Ryder Cup experience, the Danish golfer is looking to make a statement this year.
Palmer notes how the Dane, famous for having a weak putting game, has been developing his short game and is “growing in stature” in major environments.
Aldrich Potgieter
Palmer’s speculative selection, the young South African looks a promising, if risky, bet this year.
Drawing a tentative comparison to Tiger Woods, Palmer says of Potgieter, “he can do things with a golf ball that other players can’t”.
At Houston, he ranked first for strokes gained off the tee and eighth on approach with his scoring only held back by short game issues.
For Palmer, if Potgieter can stay on the greens and avoid relying too heavily on chipping, he could get multiple eagles on the par fives and come out with a strong showing.
Market views on the favourites
Palmer was measured on Scottie Scheffler, calling him “a fair price, not a great bet”, highlighting his below average approach play statistics this season.
He was negative about Rory McIlroy, citing the historically poor record of defending champions at Augusta (not successfully defended since 2002), as well as the distraction of hosting the Champions Dinner for the first time this year.
Palmer is also not confident in the form of LIV players like John Ram and Bryson DeChambeau due to their schedule of non-stateside events on easier courses producing flattering statistics that don’t translate to Augusta.
Ludvig Åberg meanwhile was acknowledged as a future Masters winner. Although, Palmer believes his 30 hole Sunday grind in the wind and rain at the Texas Open was damaging to his Augusta prep and will result in fatigue as the competition drags on.
With the competition set to tee off tomorrow, viewers from around the world will be watching the biggest names in golf battle it out for the coveted green jacket.
