As the ante-post market for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival adjusts, debate continues over whether Constitution Hill will line up in the Champion Hurdle.
On Upping The Ante, pundit Johnny Dineen said he believes there is a greater than 50% chance the former champion will run, despite recent setbacks and form figures of “FFPF”. The sequence has led to market drift, with the horse trading around 9/2.
Dineen argued the price reflects the uncertainty. “I’d say it’s more than 50 [percent chance] then he’ll run… I think he’ll run,” he said. His view is that if participation is close to even money, 9/2 represents fair value for a proven Grade One performer.
He accepted the risk profile is high, comparing the situation to insuring a driver with a record of incidents, where the premium would rise accordingly. Co-host David Jennings was more cautious, questioning whether backers are being compensated enough for the participation risk.
The discussion reflects a wider trend in Festival betting, where non-runner uncertainty continues to influence pricing months in advance.
Other Festival Markets
The podcast also covered key races and betting angles:
- Ascot Chase: Dineen expects Jonbon to win but described 4/9 as too short to back. He suggested connections could consider alternatives to the Ryanair Chase, depending on performance and distance preferences.
- Star of the Week: Dineen selected Il Etait Temps following a strong win against older rivals, disagreeing with Jennings’ alternative choice.
- Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle: Dineen put forward The Passing Wife at 20/1, citing a rating of 139 and potential jockey booking as positives.
- Top Jockey Market: He backed Paul Townend to finish leading rider at Cheltenham, pointing to the depth of quality mounts available.
