Political markets are moving almost as fast as sporting ones in light of recent and upcoming events, as Labour reshuffles its cabinet, a by-election looms on the horizon and the possibility of a second Scottish independence referendum continues to do the rounds.
Sharing his views on the Shadow Cabinet reshuffle, Kedjanyi said: “The most significant thing is that this is a Shadow Cabinet which is intended to fight a general election – it’s intended to campaign on the airwaves.
“They want two things from this – more media performance with more recognition, I think it’s fair to say that this Shadow Cabinet has plenty of recognition, at least more than the previous one, and then I think in General Election scenario they would like it to be the case that this Shadow Cabinet is full of performances on media rounds, attacking their opposite numbers for any perceived failures.”
One of the main betting takeaways from the Labour Party reshuffle has been the renewal of interest in a new leadership contest. The odds for Keir Starmer to remain Labour leader as of the next election stand at 5/2, although it is 2/7 for him not to be party leader.
“You could have gotten pretty big prices on Starmer to be Labour leader at the next election just before the conference. I’d imagine you’d have to be very happy with how things have gone now,” Kedjanyi said.
Moving on to the Scottish independence referendum, the hosts detailed how the odds currently stand at evens for Scottish voters to vote in favour of separating from the rest of the UK, should a poll be held before 2025, and 8/11 for a no vote.
However, it is 20/1 for a referendum to take place next year and 5/1 for 2023. Since this is a large price – and the SNP are pushing hard for a second vote – this could be a market for bookmakers to keep an eye on.