European football’s elite clubs could face increased risk in the UEFA Champions League (UCL) knockout playoffs, according to the latest episode of Pinnacle FC.
Predicting strong first-leg performances from home underdogs following the removal of the away goals rule, episode 80 of the Pinnacle FC podcast, host Gareth Wheeler and Deputy Football Editor at Sky Betting and Gaming, Jake Osgathorpe, assessed the eight playoff ties involving teams ranked ninth to 24th after the league phase.
Their core argument: markets are overvaluing brand-name clubs and undervaluing home advantage in the first leg.
Osgathorpe said the absence of away goals forces home sides to push harder for a win before travelling, increasing the likelihood of aggressive setups and positive results. He expects several underdogs to cover handicap lines or avoid defeat.
In Benfica v Real Madrid, Osgathorpe backed Benfica on the +0.5 line, citing stronger xG data from a previous meeting and defensive injuries in Madrid’s squad. Wheeler said Madrid’s short price in qualification markets limits betting value.
For Bodø/Glimt v Inter Milan, conditions were central. Artificial turf, cold weather and scheduling advantages were flagged as levellers. Osgathorpe supported Bodø/Glimt on the +0.75 handicap, while Wheeler opted for Inter to win with both teams scoring.
In Galatasaray v Juventus, both analysts questioned Juventus’ away record. Recommended angles included Galatasaray with a handicap start and under 2.5 goals in what is expected to be a low-scoring tie.
Goals markets dominated discussion around Qarabağ FK v Newcastle United and Club Brugge v Atlético Madrid. Both expect defensive gaps to drive scoring opportunities. Osgathorpe placed two units on both teams to score in Qarabağ v Newcastle, while Wheeler backed Over 3 in that fixture and Club Brugge to score over 1.5 goals.
The analysts’ overall position is consistent: first-leg home advantage is being underpriced. For operators and traders, that suggests potential exposure if market sentiment continues to favour established names over situational factors.
