When it comes to political betting and commentary in general, much has been made of the Labour Party’s Red Wall in the Midlands and Northern England over the past year, but the Conservative Blue Wall in the South has largely evaded discussion.
Revisiting the political markets once again for the latest episode of Star Sports’ The Polling Station, Johnny Ward and William Kedjanyi reviewed YouGov analysis on the 53-parliamentary seat strong Blue Wall stretching across the South and East of England.
Commenting on the major political trends which could have an impact on political betting markets, Kedjanyi noted that global warming has become a defining issue for many voters, whilst Brexit continues to loom ominously over all political discussions.
“Someone who might have been looking at the trend in the Blue Wall, looking at the data there, could have seen something like Chesham and Amersham,” he remarked.
“The closer you are to the ground for these things the more of an edge you get for political betting. It’s also interesting to note that there are some really important questions that are answered here.
“There’s support for what you might call aggressive policies on cultural issues, it’s interesting to note that both the Red Wall and Blue Wall – as defined by YouGov – believe that global warming should be a top priority for the government.
“There’s big support there for the idea that the government has handled Brexit badly and also that it was the wrong decision in the first place.”
However, with by-elections coming up, Kedjanyi noted that there could be some unique opportunities for political bettors, due to the possibility of political changeovers in the UK’s complex climate.
Observing that figures in some constituencies could predict a drop-off in support for the Conservative Party – translating to 16 seats – Kedjanyi added: “It’s possible you could see some changovers, so whilst they (The Conservatives) are solidifying the Red Wall they might drop back in the Blue Wall.
“If the drop-off continues at that rate – I don’t think it will – but if it was too and I think it’s worth watching, come the time of the next election or by-election we could see some really interesting betting opportunities.
“It’s interesting to note that when we had local elections, and there were more markets for local elections this year, they did best in the South of England and the East of England, apart from of course Tracy Brabin and Andy Burnham up North.”
Source – Star Sports YouTube Channel